Elite Eight – NBA DFS March 13th
March 13, 2018 | phil_beneteau89
In this segment, I will share my top plays of the night; two guards, two forwards, two centers, and two value plays. I will also post the Vegas lines which will help decide which games to target, and which could turn in to a possible blow out.
(All Vegas lines are taken off Bodog betting)
(Teams in Italics are on the back end of back-to-back games)
IND at PHI (-6) – O/U – 210
MIN at WAS (-3.5) – O/U – 217
DAL (-1.5) at NYK – O/U – 216
OKC (-6) at ATL- O/U – 215
TOR (-9) at BKN – O/U – 218
CHA at NOP (-3.5) – O/U – 230
LAC (-6.5) at CHI – O/U – 224
ORL at SAS (-9.5) – O/U – 204
DET at UTA (-8.5) – O/U – 198
CLE (-7.5) at PHO – O/U – 230
DEN (-2) at LAL – O/U – 231
Guards: Dennis Smith Jr. and Kyle Lowry
Dennis Smith Jr. is popping in the models today and for good reason. This game with the Knicks is projected to remain close and the Knicks are awful at closing down guards. Smith Jr. has 40+ DK point upside in this contest. Kyle Lowry’s price has barely fluctuated recently and has a great upside in this matchup with the Brooklyn Nets. He has averaged 48.6 DK points in his two games against the Nets this season and at his mid $7K price tag, is far too cheap to pass on. While the Raptors have been running teams off the court this season, he is averaging 1.22 fantasy points per minute this month and is projected to see over 30 minutes tonight.
Forwards: LeBron James and Devin Booker
I am probably not the only person who loves this stack tonight as it should be a pretty fruitful one. James has scored 1.51 fantasy points per minute over his last month and tonight could be the best matchup to date. If you are playing any sort of a Cavaliers stack with LeBron and Larry Nance Jr., finding a Suns player to run it back is vital as this game will need to stay close long enough to see everyone hit value. Oth options for a game stack include Jeff Green, Kyle Korver, T.J. Warren, and Elfrid Payton. If you are avoiding this game, Anthony Davis is hard to fade with his nightly 80 DK point upside. I like a Davis and Kemba Walker stack tonight as Walker provides a nice ceiling in a great guard matchup, but should go under-owned with his recent stats.
Centers: Jonas Valanciunas and DeAndre Jordan
Jonas Valanciunas is still too cheap on DraftKings as he is just $5,900. He has GPP winning upside but does come with extreme downside. Stacking him with Lowry makes sense if you think they both can stay on the court long enough. Valanciunas has scored at least 29.75 DK points in five straight games with this being one of his best matchups to date. In his two games against the Nets this season he has averaged 33 DK points with a floor of 23.75 and a ceiling of 42.25. Running it back with a Nets player makes sense for a mini-game stack. DeAndre Jordan’s price is pretty soft on FanDuel tonight at just $8,200. He is the 7th most expensive center on FanDuel, but has been a beast lately on the boards and will face a Bulls team that is ready to tank their season away. Stacking him with one of the Clippers guards and running it back with either Kriss Dunn or Zach LaVine make for strong correlation plays.
Values: Tyler Dorsey (ATL guards), Nerlens Noel, and Noah Vonleh
With Kent Bazemore officially ruled out for the season the Atlanta guards will all share a nice boost in time and usage. Tyler Dorsey will be given the start today and he is a player that should see his price tag rise. Another Hawks guard that is worth a flier on is Josh Magette. He is essentially a punt play but has 25 point upside. Nerlens Noel is starting to heat up and has scored more than 16 DK points in four straight and over 24.75 DK points in two straight. He has played more than 18 minutes only once in those four games when he recorded 29.5 DK points. Tonight he will face a Knicks team that can be beaten by his skill set. I like him more with Enes Kanter out, but either way, he is still too cheap across the industry. Noah Vonleh seems like the forgotten forward in Chicago. He has played 19 minutes in each of his last two games and capped it off with a 24 DK point night last game against the Hawks. The Clippers can be beat up front, and Vonleh is projected to see around 19 minutes tonight. He is a great cheap low-owned play on a large slate.
Thanks for reading, if you have any questions or comments feel free to tweet me at @fantasyphilled !