Elite Eight – NBA DFS November 12th
November 12, 2017 | phil_beneteau89
In this segment I will share my top four plays of the night; one center, one guard, one forward, one wildcard play. I will also share my top four value plays of the night; one center, one guard, one forward, and one wildcard play. I will also have the Vegas posted lines which will help you make sharper calls when looking at high over/under as well as the spreads to gauge which games could end up in a blow out.
(All Vegas lines are taken off Bodog betting)
(Teams in RED are on the back end of a back-to-back)
Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics – TOR is favored by 2.5 / Over/Under: 203
Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons – DET is favored by 3 / Over/Under: 201
Houston Rockets at Indiana Pacers – HOU is favored by 3.5 / Over/Under: 223.5
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder – OKC is favored by 12.5 / Over/Under: 206
Guard – James Harden (PG/SG) – Houston – DraftKings: $11,900; FanDuel: $11,800
The Houston Rockets are on the back end of a back-to-back set, but given the lack of high priced stars on this slate, I believe Harden is the upside I want exposure to. Russell Westbrook is the only other player over $8,700 on DraftKings. The worry here is that the Mavericks are on the back end of a back-to-back set where they on the road again to face the Thunder. The spread is large, and I’m afraid that Westbrook could be limited by this spread if it gets out of control early on. Harden has showed his 80 point upside, and will be in a much closer game against the Pacers today. Harden is who I’m paying up for, given the upside and the amount of playing time I expect both to get tonight.
Forward – Al Horford (PF/C) – Boston – DraftKings: $7,200; FanDuel: $7,400
With it being a short four game slate, it was already tough to find some stronger plays, but with it being a slate that only features one game with an over/under of over 206, this slate becomes even more difficult. Check prior to lock to see if Horford will be playing, but he is probable after missing Friday’s contest. Here’s where the fun starts, Horford should see some extra usage with Kyrie Irving out.
Center – Andre Drummond (C) – Detroit – DraftKings: $8,700; FanDuel: $9,900
How can you fade a player with nightly 50 point upside at the center position. His price on DraftKings is far too low as he is a walking double double, even in a matchup against a slower paced Miami Heat. Yes, he will be facing Hassan Whiteside, but Whiteside has not been the same player this year. We’ve seen him disappear in games, and with Drummond playing like a house on fire, averaging over 15 rebounds and 14 points a game this season, he is a lock for me on a small slate.
Wildcard – Victor Oladipo (PG/SG) – Indiana – DraftKings: $7,200; FanDuel: $7,600
We already know that stacking Houston Rockets games can be quite beneficial. On a short slate, with low point totals, Victor Oladipo comes to mind against this Houston team. He is a triple threat on the score sheet, and could come close to his first double double of the year. As lnog as his shot is going, Oladipo is a lock to return value, and then some.
Guard – Dennis Smith Jr. (PG/SG) – Dallas – DraftKings: $5,500; FanDuel: $5,900
Dennis Smith Jr. played last night, and put up his second straight 45 point DK night. His price has not adjusted to his potential lately, and it would be wise to take advantage of tonight against the Thunder. Westbrook is not necessarily a top defender, and if the Mavericks want to stick close in this game, Smith will have to be a major factor. He took over the last couple minutes last night, and I expect him to come out firing once again. Play him!
Forward – Serge Ibaka (PF/C) – Toronto – DraftKings: $4,900; FanDuel: $5,400
Serge Ibaka is one of my favourite plays on this slate. He will face a Celtics defence that can give up points to the PF and C position. Ibaka showed his true upside last time out against the Pelicans as he was able to put up 39 points. I like the options that open up with roster construction with Ibaka included.
Center – Jonas Valanciunas (C) -Toronto – DraftKings: $5,000; FanDuel: $5,200
Jonas Valanciunas is only a GPP play for me. He has 40 point upside, and could absolutely tear apart the Celtics front court, but we have also seen him put up a couple duds this season. If Valanciunas can stay on the court, I see him getting a double double which would give him at least five to six times upside, which is not bad on this short slate.
Wildcard – Terry Rozier (PG/SG) – Boston – DraftKings: $5,000; FanDuel: $5,100
While watching some Boston Celtics games this season, Terry Rozier has stood out to me in positive ways. He has the potential to fill up the stat sheet with his rebounding, assists, and scoring, and should be in line for more work with Kyrie Irving out for this contest. Rozier is a great value play and someone to stack with Al Horford if you are going that way today.
Thanks for reading, if you have any questions or comments feel free to tweet me at @fantasyphilled !