Daily Fantasy NBA Cheat Sheet: Tuesday, November 14th (UPDATED)
November 14, 2017 | Spencer L
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UPDATE – 6:25 ET
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Danny Green probable. Cross Bryn Forbes off the list of potential value plays.
Devin Harris and Dorian Finney-Smith OUT. This solidifies playing time for Dennis Smith Jr, who we already liked to begin with.
INJURY REPORT – 12:30 ET
Kyrie Irving probable. It appears he’s on track to play tonight. Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart will take a slight hit with him expected back in the lineup. Rozier is out of the DFS conversation, while Smart still garners some interest despite coming off the bench.
D’Angelo Russell OUT. Spencer Dinwiddie is probable, and he receives the biggest boost with Russell not playing.
Danny Green questionable. Bryn Forbes started last game, notching 18 FP in 34 minutes. Keep an eye on this development, as Forbes would enter the DFS mix if starting again.
*Check back ONE HOUR before lock for injury and optimal lineup updates*
Spencer Dinwiddie (BKN): Dinwiddie didn’t play last game, but he’s expected return tonight. That’s good news for fantasy backers, considering he’ll likely start in place of D’Angelo Russell. Dinwiddie has proven the ability to rack up fantasy production with Russell off the floor, posting 38 FP in 31 minutes October 25 vs Cleveland when Russell was sidelined. Needless to say, Dinwiddie is a strong pick in all formats.
Dennis Smith Jr (DAL): Smith Jr has been on fire lately, posting 45, 49, and 30 FP respectively despite averaging just 31 minutes per contest. The matchup vs San Antonio doesn’t look great, but Smith’s salary has yet to catch up with that recent production. He’s a strong mid-range pick on this three-game slate.
o Additional Notes:
Kyrie Irving (BOS) is listed as probable tonight. Assuming he plays, he’s a decent option against a Brooklyn team that plays fast and ranks 30th vs point guards. Having said that, he’s not a necessary spend considering the aforementioned strong values of the position … Patty Mills (SA) represents a cheap GPP pick on all sites. The minutes are somewhat unsure, but Mills could post a strong line against a Dallas team that ranks 24th in team d-eff and 29th vs PGs if the playing time corresponds.
James Harden (HOU): Harden doesn’t necessarily profile as a great “per dollar” pick, but I’m still making him a focal point of my lineups. Simply put, he’s the only true “fantasy superstar” with extreme upside on tonight’s limited slate. Harden’s salary ascension comes from a remarkable 68 FPPG mark over his past four. While you may be able to fade his heavy salary in tournaments, I’m not taking that chance in cash lineups.
Eric Gordon (HOU): Gordon represents a decent mid-range option, especially on FanDuel where you need two shooting guards. You can roster Gordon alongside Harden over there and feeling pretty confident – considering the alternatives at the position. His opponent, Toronto, ranks 21st in defensive efficiency vs opposing backcourts.
Marcus Smart (BOS): As mentioned earlier, Kyrie Irving is questionable. If he’s out, Smart becomes a much more confident play with extra playing time and usage. Smart remains in the DFS conversation even if Irving starts, but his floor/upside combination would take a hit. NOTE: Kyrie now probable.
o Additional Notes:
Kyle Anderson (SA) is listed as a shooting guard on Yahoo, priced near the minimum at $11. He’s an easy SG or G pick over there … Speaking of the Spurs, Danny Green is questionable tonight. If he’s out, Bryn Forbes (SA) could be locked into starter-minutes as an appealing cheap option on all sites.
DeMarre Carroll (BKN): Carroll is averaging a solid 29 FPPG this season, which represents his value threshold at current salary levels. He’s a strong option in all formats, potentially picking up some offensive slack with D’Angelo Russell out. Roster with confidence!
CJ Miles (TOR): Norman Powell is doubtful tonight, which places CJ Miles on the DFS map. Miles may only see 20-25 minutes, but that seems more secure with Powell not expected to suit up. Miles is dirt-cheap on FanDuel, where he makes the most sense as a value filler.
Jaylen Brown (BOS): Brown deserves more consideration on FanDuel than DraftKings and Yahoo – where you need two small forwards and his price appears more favorable. Brown has been solid this season, and he should approach his value threshold of 30-32 FP against a Brooklyn team that plays fast and ranks 28th in d-eff vs SFs.
o Additional Notes:
Trevor Ariza (HOU) makes for a fine value filler where he comes at a significant discount from Brown/Carroll. Even though he doesn’t have much upside, the high allotment of minutes makes him a relatively secure pick in this abbreviated slate … Kyle Anderson (SA) is cheap on DraftKings. I’m not in love with his recent minutes, but he’s a fine value placeholder to make the rest of your lineup work.
Serge Ibaka (TOR): Ibaka’s production has fluctuated this season, but his playing time has apparently smoothed into a solid 30mpg role. He’s a reasonable value option in this high-scoring tilt with Houston, considering the lack of opportunity cost at this position.
o Additional Notes:
The other power forward recommendations are site dependent: Jayson Tatum (BOS) has an acceptable salary on FanDuel, but I’m staying away on DraftKings and Yahoo … Ryan Anderson (HOU) has been seeing quality minutes, but that only occasionally translates to solid fantasy value. He’s a fine filler on FanDuel – rating similar to Tatum – where you need two power forwards … Dirk Nowitzki (DAL) is noticeably cheaper than those two on DraftKings, where you can consider him as a value filler.
Clint Capela (HOU): It’s a tough decision between Al Horford and Clint Capela. They have both been performing at high levels recently, but Capela’s salary is marginally shorter across all sites. The Houston big man has notched 41+ FP in three straight, earning quality minutes above 31 in each. That seems to be the key with Capela, whether or not he sees over 30 minutes.
Pau Gasol (SA): Gasol is a fine pivot downward from Capela and Horford. While his upside isn’t quite as high as that duo, he could provide plausible value against a Dallas team that ranks 28th vs centers. Pau is a very nice tournament pick with borderline cash game potential.
- Additional Notes:
Al Horford (BOS) finds himself in a great matchup against a Brooklyn team that ranks dead last vs centers. He’s a fine alternative to Clint Capela through all formats, assuming you have the marginally extra salary to make him work. You could roster both Horford and Capela as a viable cash strategy on DK and Yahoo … Jonas Valanciunas (TOR) is a GPP option, but difficult to trust in cash games due to the variance in his playing time. If he sees 25-30 minutes, the profit potential could be GPP-winning, but posting some lineup-killing duds as of late with reduced minutes. Buyer beware.