The Fast Break: Friday Jan. 6th
January 6, 2017 | Michael Worton
The Fast Break is an NBA DFS article designed to break down our favorite plays on a nightly slate and help you find the top tournament, value and cash game play each night that will lead you to straight cash homie. It’s also important to know who not to play. I’ll give you my top fades for each night too and let you know who to #HardPass on. Everyone has system. It is my goal to help you think differently and beat the trendy picks.
The Greek ($10,700) These 2 teams just met & The Greek popped off 57.75 DK points and the game winner at the buzzer. There was no one on the Knicks to stop him then, there is still no one on the Knicks to stop him now. Maybe if Charles Oakley & Anthony Mason came back and they double flagrant fouled him, then maybe he could be held to around 37. But, they’re not, and so another 57-60 points is my projection.
Kyrie Irving ($7,800) The Nets are bad. Like really bad. They played last night and Jeff Teague lit the up. Irving is well rested and the Nets play better at home than they do on the road some even if a blowout is probable, I still project Irving to play 33-35 minutes or so. He’s went for 62.75 & 63 DK points in 2 out of his last 3 contests. He has crazy upside and can score incredibly fast.
Goran Dragic ($7,400) Release the Dragon! He doesn’t have quite the upside that Irving does, but in his last 10 games he did score over 43 DK points 4 times. He can put up numbers, and with Whiteside out again tonight, which just coexists with the ban I put him on, the offense will run at his command. It doesn’t hurt that the Lakers are 26th against the PG either.
Mike Conley ($6,600) The last time these 2 teams met, the Warriors were in the middle of a long road trip and the game was ugly, like that weird cousin ugly. I don’t really see that happening this time as the Grizzlies are coming in struggling, dropping both games in LA. I think this one has more points than what Vegas thinks, and closer too. The Warriors with all the hype haven’t blown anyone out in the last 8 games, and they had one win in the double digits, a 10 point win against the Raptors. In the past the Warriors have handled the Grizzlies at ease, but I think if Memphis stays close then, it’ll be because of Conley who just dropped 44.25 DK points against the Clippers.
James Harden ($12,200) This is a given every time he steps onto the floor. I like that The Greek can give you the same upside at $1500 cheaper, but we also saw James Harden drop over 100 fantasy points recently too. The matchup is fantastic, the Magic rank 22nd overall and Harden will triple double again, just how big will it be?
Evan Fournier ($5,800) I will likely have a bit of exposure to this game as you’ll see. The Magic can put up points too. Fournier played 30 minutes in his return from injury, but only putting up around 19 DK points. I like Fournier tonight, he seems to not have a minutes restriction, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him back into the starting lineups and the Rockets have the 24th best defense against the SG.
Eric Gordon ($5,800) I said I’d have exposure to this game, now drop it. EG is averaging 31.6 over his last 5 games and is very consistent. His floor is around 25 and his ceiling is around 40. I like the roof on this one people.
Malcolm Brogdon ($5,700) Oh look, someone from a different game! The last time I wrote about our good buddy Malcolm not many people were aware of who he was. Well, now everyone knows. He went 12-6-8 against these Knicks his last game out and Delly is projected to miss this game again. His price tag has seen a significant rise so be aware of that, but he is a safe bet for 25 tonight.
Kevin Durant ($9,400) He is the only Warrior that I trust night in and night out. He’s averaging 53 DK points over his last 5 games. I think people will be scared off of him because of his matchup, to which I say, who do the Grizzlies have that can stop KD one on one? Sure they rank 1st against the SF spot, but they have limited scoring there because they traditionally play at a slow pace. Rivers just dropped 28 against them, Reddick 19, Nick Young went for 20, Matt Barnes for 20, all in the Grizzlies last 3 games. Are you telling me KD is worst than them or that the Grizzlies have found a magic touch to guarding the wing? I don’t think so.
Carmelo Anthony ($7,900) His price has finally come up. He posted 60.75 DK points against these Bucks in his last game and what do you know, they play again. The biggest difference is that Porzingis is projected to play. Even if he is on a minutes restriction it still limits the usage rate of Melo. Melo is a guy that is going to get his regardless, but with Porzingis back, I wouldn’t expect 60. 40 at the very least though.
Jabari Parker ($7,300) I love playing guys no one is on, or guys who just put up a dud and re playing the same team the next night. Jabari Parker plays much better at home than on the road, averaging 6 fantasy points more in the cheese-ville. He put up 26.5 his last game out and the Knicks rank 12th against the PF. I look for Parker to rebound and for you to have a low ownership % in that tourney of yours.
Aaron Gordon ($4,900) He’s been playing pretty good ball, 29.8 DK points over his last 5 games and gets a great matchup against the Rockets and the wonderful defense they play. He jacked up 10 3’s 2 games ago, only making 3 of them. The Rockets allow a ton of 3’s to opposing teams, if Gordon can knock down a few triples to go with his 18-6, you’l l be all giddy inside.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,6 00) I’m not in love with this pick, as the Wizards rank 10th down low but 22nd against the PF. KAT has a plethora of ways to score though. He can rebound, block shots, pass the ball sometimes too. He’s coming off a 53.75 DK performance against the lowly but up and coming 76ers, putting him over 50 in 3 of his last 5 games.
Draymond Green ($7,500) This is exactly the game Draymond Green pretends to like. Just kidding. He’s way to cheap for me and I love targeting guys in this range that have the same ceiling as guys that cost 2k more. He went 49.5 2 games ago, 42 his last game out. I really like Draymond tonight.
Serge Ibaka ($6,400) You should have seen this coming. I think Serge will jack up about 8 3’s tonight. I’ll start the over/under at him making 3. Any takers? He’s cooled down his last 3 games after playing some really terrific ball. He was ejected last game, oops, which his hindered his score a tad. This game will be pretty fast pace and I like Serge for value at least tonight.
James Johnson ($5,200) If it seems like I recommend him a lot, well, it is because I do. I love JJ and tonight with no Whiteside (Yay!) James grabs a few more rebounds, a few more points and a few more bucks for you.
Joel Embiid ($7,700) He’s a big, and he is playing Boston, lets go! Oh, you’re worried about him being sick? This reminds me of the scene in Home Alone 2 when Kevin offers the Bell Boy a tip, and the guy refuses because he thought it was gum, so Kevin pulls out the wad of cash and sticks it right back in his pocket. Do you really wanna be the bell boy???
Al Horford ($6,900) I’m really happy he didn’t solve any of their defensive holes down low. But I am also really happy to play him against the 76ers. He’s only avaeraging 31.8 DK points over his last 5. I’m hoping that scares people off of him because I will gladly pick him up because he is coming off consective games over 36.
Sasha Vucevic ($6,300) I’m just kidding. It’s Nikola Vucevic. I just didn’t want to overwhelm you with another pick from the Magic And Rocket game.
Greg Monroe ($5,800) J-Kidd came out last game saying he was giving Monroe more minutes and boy am I glad he did. I’m not for sure what the beef is with this guy but man he can play. His price has risen which scares me silly. J-Kidd at anytime could be like, DNP CD. He’s averaging around 38 DK points his last 3 games. I just really wish he didn’t play for the Bucks.
Guys in tough matchups, or guys I don’t like, that I’d avoid or only play in tournaments are:
Guards- Hassan Whiteside. (He’s still serving time in the Ban) We’ll also add Monta Ellis.
Centers- Hassan Whiteside. Monta Ellis.
Thanks for reading, good luck! Follow me on Twitter @Worton316